The outlook for commodities in 2021


By Hilary schmidt, Worldwide banker

This text initially appeared within the Winter / February 2021 version of Worldwide Banker

For many commodities markets, 2020 has undeniably been a turbulent yr. The coronavirus pandemic outbreak has triggered a widespread international shutdown in financial exercise that has depressed demand and disrupted provide chains for commodities in nearly each sector – power, base metals, agricultural merchandise and even some valuable metals – and resulted in a nadir for the asset. classify; The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks 23 commodity futures markets, hit an all-time low in April, and crude oil costs plunged into destructive territory for the primary time. By April, buying and selling of West Texas Intermediate crude futures on the New York Mercantile Change (NYMEX) had reached round – $ 37 per barrel (/ bbl). However in lots of circumstances, the second half of the yr noticed the costs of a number of necessary commodities get better dramatically and, in a number of circumstances, attain multi-year highs.

Can the commodities sector emerge from this rebound in 2021 and make additional beneficial properties? Already this yr, a number of markets have seen appreciable bullish sentiment, prompting many analysts to undertaking a brighter future for commodities because the world strives to finish the influence of COVID as soon as and for all. 19. The weak US greenback, which is the de facto foreign money used to set the value of nearly all world commodity markets. A weak greenback signifies that commodities are cheaper for international consumers when transformed again to their nationwide foreign money and as such will induce better demand, all different issues being equal. “The one method to transfer commodities in an inflationary and buying energy style is a weaker greenback,” Doug King, director of RCMA Capital’s Service provider Commodity Fund (MCF), not too long ago instructed MarketWatch.

As such, rather a lot will seemingly rely upon the weak point of the greenback all year long. However in fact there are a selection of demand and provide elements that affect every product within the advanced in its personal means. Nonetheless, many count on commodities as an entire to carry out nicely in 2021. ING, for instance, considers a world financial restoration, expansionary financial coverage and financial stimulus to be notably encouraging by a number of governments. . These elements have boosted inflation expectations, the financial institution famous, which ought to induce additional inflows to this asset class.

On the oil facet, Brent Brent costs jumped 8% in January and by early February that they had hit their highest stage in additional than a yr, absolutely offsetting the steep losses which have occurred since outbreak of the pandemic. Moreover, the rally in crude seems removed from over, with underlying fundamentals supporting extra beneficial properties this yr. Based on S&P World Platts Analytics in its month-to-month oil market forecast on the finish of January, demand for oil will common 99.3 million barrels per day (b / d) in 2021, greater than six million greater than the 93, 1 million bpd of 2020. That stated, following a peak in COVID-19 circumstances in late 2020 / early 2021, this newest forecast is down 0.28 million bpd from its earlier estimate .

Nonetheless, oil costs are anticipated to rise this yr, particularly after OPEC (Group of the Petroleum Exporting International locations) prime producer Saudi Arabia not too long ago determined to chop by one million b / d of crude oil manufacturing in February and March. “Oil balances tighten as third quarter approaches with elevated summer time seasonal demand, greater refining cycles and an enhancing outlook for the COVID state of affairs amid ongoing vaccinations,” Platts Analytics stated . As such, most analysts count on costs to rise. Goldman Sachs sees Brent crude oil hit $ 65 / bbl in mid-year, whereas UBS has raised its forecast to $ 60 / bbl for a similar interval. “Oil has additionally attracted some speculative curiosity, however there’s clearly room for extra purchases within the power house in 2021,” famous ING in December.

For base metals, nevertheless, the image appears to be like rather more combined. This sector of the commodities advanced has been the perfect performer total for a lot of 2020, particularly within the second half of the yr, because the Chinese language financial system recovered sooner than anticipated and the weak US greenback and provide points additionally supported costs. The S&P Goldman Sachs Industrial Metals Index, which is a part of the benchmark S&P Goldman Sachs Commodities Index (S&P GSCI), gained round 40% between June and December, with copper, aluminum, nickel and zinc having all skilled pronounced rebounds.

But when this rally continued till 2021 for sure industrial metals, particularly cobalt (which is up greater than 40% because the begin of the yr), tin (13% extra) and nickel (6%), others have pale, as within the type of zinc and iron ore. This confirms the predictions of a number of analysts who’ve advised that the bottom metals sector will hit an inflection level in early 2021 because the financial restoration beneficial properties momentum and a slowdown in Chinese language financial institution lending to the true property sector takes maintain. units off. 2021 and a restoration in demand additionally seemingly earlier than the top of the yr in a number of nations, costs are anticipated to stay nicely supported in 2021. “We count on the costs of all metals to extend on common on an annual common foundation, on the sharp exception of iron ore, which we contemplate to be one of many underperformers in 2021, ”noticed Fitch Rankings. “Nevertheless, we observe that the rise from present ranges is proscribed given the very robust rally already recorded in 2020.”

For valuable metals, the largest query on the minds of traders is whether or not gold can proceed its spectacular bull run that occurred in 2020. The coronavirus pandemic is creating a variety of uncertainty in most markets monetary establishments, the previous yr has seen traders flock to the confirmed vault in droves. -have shaved gold, in addition to different valuable metals. Gold hit a report excessive of almost $ 2,080 an oz. in August. And though beneficial properties have been reasonably decreased within the second half of the yr, many count on gold to proceed to advance in 2021. Thorsten Polleit, chief economist at valuable metals agency Degussa Goldhandel , expects costs to hit $ 2,300 an oz. this yr. “The bull market in gold might be anticipated to proceed not solely into 2021 however nicely past,” Polleit famous not too long ago, including that upward value assist will come primarily from central banks in the US. world that hold rates of interest artificially low.

However not everyone seems to be optimistic in regards to the yellow steel, it should be acknowledged. René Hochreiter, analyst at Noah Capital Markets, expects the gradual international financial restoration to weigh on the valuable steel. As such, Hochreiter sees costs drop to a low of $ 1,590 an oz. this yr. “After the quickest restoration within the historical past of worldwide fairness markets, gold may expertise an equally steep decline with reducing threat and volatility,” he stated.

It was additionally a turbulent time for the silver market in latest weeks when costs briefly hit an eight-year excessive above $ 30 / ounce after a brigade of Reddit merchants who had notoriously focused GameStop snapped up. launched on the valuable metals market in early February. . The quick squeeze try by merchants nevertheless failed and costs rapidly returned to restricted buying and selling ranges. Nonetheless, some count on silver to finish in 2021 as the highest performing valuable steel. “Cash is unquestionably the star of the present,” the London Bullion Market Affiliation (LBMA) not too long ago stated. “Silver is anticipated to be the highest performing steel in 2021, however with a buying and selling vary of $ 38.5, nearly 5 instances its vary predicted final yr, it appears to be like prefer it’s a curler coaster experience. in 2021. “

Because it sees an 11.5% improve within the common value of gold to $ 1,973.80, moreover, the LBMA expects silver to rise a rally of 38.7% this yr to attain a median value of $ 28.50. The Affiliation’s annual value forecast report additionally famous that analysts cite low to destructive rates of interest, a weaker US greenback, and the Federal Reserve’s accommodative financial insurance policies as the primary elements behind. the rise in valuable steel costs in 2021.

Though a number of agricultural commodities reminiscent of espresso and cocoa underperformed final yr, most ended up making commendable beneficial properties within the face of financial headwinds, grains, oilseeds, palm oil and oil. sugar deserving particular point out. Certainly, corn and soybean futures have hit six-year highs, with droughts affecting agricultural provides in South America and demand from China hovering, whereas palm oil briefly took off. reached ten-year highs in January.

With substantial enlargement of the cash provide in a lot of the world, ultra-low charges and financial stimulus measures considerably boosting inflation expectations (together with meals inflation, particularly), the foreign money is anticipated to proceed to move this yr into agricultural commodities. And with Chinese language demand anticipated to proceed to get better sharply, together with noticeable provide points persisting, agricultural commodity costs are anticipated to rise for a lot of 2021.

“La Niña has posed – and can proceed to pose – challenges for farmers world wide, worsening the provision of assorted agricultural merchandise,” Rabobank noticed in late 2020. Advanced climate situations improve the danger of heavy rains and rain. flooding in some elements of the world, whereas additionally growing the probability of drought in different areas and, as such, can have a substantial affect on meals manufacturing. “The drought in southern Brazil and elements of Argentina affected crops like sugar cane and wheat, and triggered issues for soybean crops. With the primary harvest intervals beginning in South America, the danger stays excessive. The Dutch agricultural financial institution additionally expects wheat costs to rise as drought within the US Midwest and lack of winter snowfall attributable to La Niña proceed to hamper manufacturing.


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