Soybean Dollars and Falling Imports Will Bring Another $2 Trillion to the Central Bank

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“We estimate that exports were delayed by $1.2 billion over the past 90 days due to recent uncertainty,” the private report said.

description of the work New soy regime announced by government “That could cause a good chunk of the pause to be cleared out” so the “additional supply (more grain and less fuel) for September could be around $1,500-2,000 million.”

Last night, the Minister of Economy, serge massaAnnounced a new scheme for liquidating dollars from soybean exports.

The initiative envisions the opening of a special foreign exchange market session by the end of the month in which grain companies entering foreign currency will receive an exchange rate of $200.

report of megaqm states that based on “a larger decline in fuel imports relative to the seasonal decline in grain exports”, “for September, we should expect a reduction in dollar demand due to the season of approximately 500 million US dollars”.

“In October, it will already be about $1 billion less than in August,” the report said.

In the other pane, The report says that in August, the BCRA only managed to accumulate foreign currency purchases for the year to the tune of $45 million.

“By this time of year in 2021, they had purchased US$7.2 billion,” the notice points out.

consultant made a table of variables which will come into play in the coming months central bankHe will retain:

Short Export Clearance: Due to the seasonality of cereals, between 400 and 500 million additional dollars should have been settled.

High and stable import payment: Stable at US$6.5 billion due to fuel purchases

Good Compulsory Import Financing: Due to the regulations in force since June, the level of monthly financing of imports over 6 months is between 1,600 and 1,700 million US dollars.

Strong tourist demand and cancellation of private debt: Tourism spending reached $750 million in July. Loan cancellations in the first half averaged $455 million.

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