OPEC predicts further growth in oil demand in the second half of 2021

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Through Grant smith at 6/10/2021

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LONDON (Bloomberg) – OPEC has predicted that the recovery in global oil demand will intensify in the second half of the year, as the group prepares to consider relaunching more interrupted production.

Oil consumption will increase by about 5 million barrels per day – or about 5% – in the second half of 2021 compared to the first as the world emerges from the pandemic crisis, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries predicted in a report. Estimates have changed little over the past month.

“The recovery in global economic growth, and therefore in demand for oil, is expected to accelerate,” wrote the group’s Vienna-based research department. The need for transport fuels is expected to increase as vaccination programs contain the virus, he said.

OPEC and its partners have restored nearly 40% of production they shut down when the coronavirus crushed demand a year ago, and will meet on July 1 to consider relaunching the rest.

The OPEC + coalition of 23 countries has previously indicated that it expects global crude markets to tighten over the next six months, while the International Energy Agency has warned of rising prices. price if the group does not turn on the taps. Brent futures are trading above $ 70 a barrel in London.

Yet so far Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has said he wants demand to be clear before the alliance increases its supplies.

The latest OPEC report reaffirms that there will be a substantial void in the market for producers to fill.

OPEC’s crude demand will average 29 million barrels per day in the last six months of the year, while the group’s 13 members pumped just 25.46 million barrels per day in May. , according to the report. Even if they make an increase planned for July, they will be well below the required level.

Oil stocks, which had swelled when demand fell during last year’s crisis, have almost returned to normal levels due to OPEC supply cuts. In April, inventories in developed countries were only 34 million barrels above their average for the period 2015 to 2019, according to the report.

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