Boeing raises two-decade Chinese jet demand estimate to $ 1.47 trillion



A Boeing model is seen at the second China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai, China on November 6, 2019. Photo taken on November 6, 2019. REUTERS / Aly Song

BEIJING, Sept. 23 (Reuters) – Boeing Co (BN) slightly raised its forecast for China’s aircraft demand for the next 20 years on Thursday, betting on the country’s rapid rebound in the face of COVID-19 and future growth of its low-cost airline sector and e-commerce.

Chinese airlines will need 8,700 new planes by 2040, 1.2% more than their previous forecast of 8,600 planes last year. These would be worth $ 1.47 trillion based on list prices, the U.S. aircraft maker said in a statement.

The 1.2% increase contrasts with the 6.3% growth forecast by Boeing last year, which made China a bright spot in the aviation market at the height of coronavirus lockdowns in the world.

Earlier this month, Boeing revised its long-term forecast for global aircraft demand upward following a strong recovery in commercial air travel in domestic markets like the United States.

“There are promising opportunities to dramatically expand international long-haul routes and air cargo capacity,” said Richard Wynne, general manager of marketing for China for Boeing’s commercial arm.

“In the longer term, it is possible that the growth of low-cost carriers will be more driven by the demand for single-aisle vehicles. “

China’s domestic aviation market, while still vulnerable to sporadic local outbreaks of COVID-19, has more or less rebounded to pre-COVID levels, but the country’s borders remain largely closed, the number of international flights being only 2% of pre-COVID levels.

Boeing has forecast a need for nearly 6,500 new single-aisle aircraft over the next 20 years, while China’s widebody fleet, including passenger and cargo models, will require 1,850 new aircraft, accounting for 20% of total deliveries. .

The air freight market has turned into a bright spot for Boeing in China as e-commerce demand explodes, even as the US aircraft manufacturer struggles to sell passenger jets due to trade tensions and the downtime of its 737 MAX.

China’s aviation authority, the first dispatcher to immobilize the 737 MAX after two fatal crashes, has yet to approve the aircraft’s return to service in the country. China accounts for a quarter of Boeing’s orders for all aircraft.

China will also need nearly $ 1.8 trillion in commercial services for its aircraft fleet over a 20-year period, the company said.

Reporting by Stella Qiu in Beijing and Jamie Freed in Sdyney; Editing by Jacqueline Wong and Muralikumar Anantharaman

Our Standards: Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.



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