Global worries, rising imports and persistently high crude oil prices will weaken the Indian rupee over the coming week.
Experts believed that the US FOMC meeting would raise fears of a decrease, at the same time, imports are expected to increase due to the impact of the Covid 2.0 weaning.
Any schedule of downsizing measures in the United States has the potential to push Foreign Portfolio Investors (REITs) away from emerging markets such as India.
Significantly, the recent large influx of REIT funds has been credited with raising the domestic markets to record levels.
“The rupee is expected to weaken due to the rise in crude oil prices to over $ 75 a barrel and rising bond yields in India and growing nervousness in the United States will impact the rupee,” he said. Sajal Gupta, Head of Forex and Rates at Edelweiss Securities.
“In addition, increasing the speed of national vaccination will speed up imports, however, robust equity flows would counter the impact to some extent.”
Last week, the rupee closed at 73.48 to the dollar before hovering between 73.30 and 73.60.
“The US Fed will announce the results of its FOMC meeting this week, which will influence currencies around the world,” said Devarsh Vakil, deputy director of retail research, HDFC Securities.
“The USDINR spot is expected to consolidate in a range of 73.25 to 73.65 ahead of next week’s US FOMC meeting and swirl according to the results of the FOMC meeting.”
Gaurang Somaiya, Forex and Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said: “Investors will be waiting for the news of inflation and the growth of the US economy, which means any hawkish statement could support the dollar at lower levels.
“Apart from the Fed policy meeting, the Bank of England will also release their policy statement and this could trigger the GBPUSD which has been supported at lower levels. * For the week, the USDINR (Spot) should trade with a negative bias and a quote between 73.05 and 74.20. “
(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at [email protected])
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